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Dani Rodrik

Datum narození: 14. srpen 1957

Dani Rodrik je turecký ekonom.

„Jestli dnes dvě země nebo společenství dokážou udělat rozumnou dohodu, tak to bude EU a USA, dvě podobně silné ekonomiky.“

„If economics were only about profit maximization, it would be just another name for business administration. It is a social discipline, and society has other means of cost accounting besides market prices.“ The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy

„The economics we need is of the "seminar room" variety, not the "rule-of-thumb" kind. It is an economics that recognizes its limitations and caveats and knows that the right message depends on the context. The fine print is what economists have to contribute.“ The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy

„The correct answer to almost any question in economics is: It depends.“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„Many models are constructed to account for regularly observed phenomena. By design, their direct implications are consistent with reality. But others are built up from first principles, using the profession’s preferred building blocks. They may be mathematically elegant and match up well with the prevailing modeling conventions of the day. However, this does not make them necessarily more useful, especially when their conclusions have a tenuous relationship with reality. Macroeconomists have been particularly prone to this problem. In recent decades they have put considerable effort into developing macro models that require sophisticated mathematical tools, populated by fully rational, infinitely lived individuals solving complicated dynamic optimization problems under uncertainty. These are models that are “microfounded,” in the profession’s parlance: The macro-level implications are derived from the behavior of individuals, rather than simply postulated. This is a good thing, in principle. For example, aggregate saving behavior derives from the optimization problem in which a representative consumer maximizes his consumption while adhering to a lifetime (intertemporal) budget constraint.† Keynesian models, by contrast, take a shortcut, assuming a fixed relationship between saving and national income. However, these models shed limited light on the classical questions of macroeconomics: Why are there economic booms and recessions? What generates unemployment? What roles can fiscal and monetary policy play in stabilizing the economy? In trying to render their models tractable, economists neglected many important aspects of the real world. In particular, they assumed away imperfections and frictions in markets for labor, capital, and goods. The ups and downs of the economy were ascribed to exogenous and vague “shocks” to technology and consumer preferences. The unemployed weren’t looking for jobs they couldn’t find; they represented a worker’s optimal trade-off between leisure and labor. Perhaps unsurprisingly, these models were poor forecasters of major macroeconomic variables such as inflation and growth.8 As long as the economy hummed along at a steady clip and unemployment was low, these shortcomings were not particularly evident. But their failures become more apparent and costly in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008–9. These newfangled models simply could not explain the magnitude and duration of the recession that followed. They needed, at the very least, to incorporate more realism about financial-market imperfections. Traditional Keynesian models, despite their lack of microfoundations, could explain how economies can get stuck with high unemployment and seemed more relevant than ever. Yet the advocates of the new models were reluctant to give up on them—not because these models did a better job of tracking reality, but because they were what models were supposed to look like. Their modeling strategy trumped the realism of conclusions. Economists’ attachment to particular modeling conventions—rational, forward-looking individuals, well-functioning markets, and so on—often leads them to overlook obvious conflicts with the world around them.“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„When globalization collides with domestic politics, the smart money bets on politics.“ The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy

„In a famous hoax, physicist Alan Sokal submitted an article to a leading journal of cultural studies purporting to describe how quantum gravity could produce a “liberatory postmodern science.” The article, which parodied the convoluted style of argument in the fashionable academic world of cultural studies, was promptly published by the editors. Sokal announced that his intention was to test the intellectual standards of the discipline by checking whether the journal would publish a piece “liberally salted with nonsense.” Sokal, “A Physicist Experiments with Cultural Studies,” April 15, 1996“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„The fracas was frequently portrayed in the media as two world-famous Harvard professors brought low by a graduate student from a lesser-known, unorthodox department. This is largely hyperbole. But the clash did illustrate an import aspect of economics—something that the profession shares with other sciences: Ultimately, what determines the standing of a piece of research is not the affiliation, status, or network of the author; it is how well it stacks up to the research criteria of the profession itself. The authority of the work derives from its internal properties—how well it is put together, how convincing the evidence is—not from the identity, connections, or ideology of the researcher. And because these standards are shared within the profession, anyone can point to shoddy work and say it is shoddy.¶¶ This may not seem particularly impressive, unless you consider how unusual it is compared to many other social sciences or much of the humanities.## It would be truly rare in those other fields for a graduate student to get much mileage challenging a senior scholar’s work, as happens with some frequency in economics. But because models enable the highlighting of error, in economics anyone can do it.“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„An economists’ consensus is perhaps more a rarity than a regularity. But when it happens, we need to pause and take stock.“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„At any rate, the lesson from history seems to be that continued globalization cannot be taken for granted. If its consequences are not managed wisely and creatively, a retreat from openness becomes a distinct possibility.“ Has Globalization Gone Too Far?

„These problems are compounded by the fact that accepted practice does not require economists to think through the conditions under which their models are useful. Asked point-blank, they can state chapter and verse all the assumptions needed to generate a particular result; that is, after all, the point of modeling. But ask them whether the model is more relevant to Bolivia or to Thailand, or whether it resembles more the market for cable TV or the market for oranges, and they will have a hard time producing an articulate answer. The standards of the profession require that the modeler make only some general claims about how what he or she is doing is relevant to the real world. It is left to the reader or the user of the model to infer the specific circumstances in which the model can help us better understand reality.§ This fudge factor increases the chances of malpractice. Models lifted out of their original context can be used in settings for which they are inappropriate.“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„policy discussion usually means pitting one model against another. Viewpoints and policy prescriptions that aren’t backed by a model typically don’t have standing.“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„The world is better served by syncretic economists and policymakers who can hold multiple ideas in their heads than by ‘one-handed’ economists who promote one big idea regardless of context.“

„Why should we allow international markets to erode domestic labor regulations through the back door when we do not allow domestic markets to do the same? The“ The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy

„Field experiments to date have shown that microfinance—the provision of small loans, typically to women or groups of women—is not particularly effective in reducing poverty.14“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

„When economists get it right, the world gets better.“ Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science

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